Chart for BTC/USD (1D)
Bitcoin (BTC) bears may win the battle but they have already lost the war. First of all, what is the battle? The battle is Bitcoin (BTC) bulls trying to break above the triangle and Bitcoin (BTC) bears trying to drag the price down. Studying the near past, we can see that Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have lost two such battles to Bitcoin (BTC) bears. Therefore, there still remains a strong probability that Bitcoin (BTC) bulls might lose the current battle again to Bitcoin (BTC) bears. However, going a bit farther in the past, we will see that Bitcoin (BTC) bears might win this battle but they have already lost the war.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell from its all time high near $20,000 and just within two months, the price had already tested the support at $5,800 also known as Bitcoin (BTC)’s February low. This was the pump and dump, if I may be so bold to call it that. What followed next was a war between Bitcoin (BTC) bulls and Bitcoin (BTC) bears as to the next direction of Bitcoin (BTC). This war lasted duration of more than seven months during which time there have been bloody battles between Bitcoin (BTC) bulls and Bitcoin (BTC) bears. As there was already a lot of fear in the market, the bears were better positioned to win most battles. Let’s just say that the numbers were on the side of Bitcoin (BTC) bears. However, Bitcoin (BTC) bulls seemed more skilled in Guerilla warfare. Successful attempts of ambush on behalf of Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have seriously weakened the morale of Bitcoin (BTC) bears. That is why, since the beginning of August, we have seen Bitcoin (BTC) bears retreating the battlefield.
Chart for BTC/USD (1D)
When Bitcoin (BTC) hit the downtrend resistance just before August, we saw a strong pullback as the price retraced steadily. However, what was seen as an army of Bitcoin (BTC) bears actually proved to be a decoy as they fled ground amid the battle and allowed Bitcoin (BTC) bulls to take charge again, without dragging the price to the bottom of the triangle. This was the first time something like this happened and it exposed the weakness among the ranks of Bitcoin (BTC) bears whose hearts and minds were no longer in this war. This was the time when the Bitcoin (BTC) bears effectively lost the war. Continuing forward, we can see that Bitcoin (BTC) shot back up to the downtrend resistance and saw another pullback but as expected, this pullback lacked the bearish momentum.
It was also for the first time that Bitcoin (BTC) had finally formed a higher low, which finally confirmed that Bitcoin (BTC) bears had lost the war. As expected, Bitcoin (BTC) ran back into the downtrend resistance and we saw another pullback which was even weaker than the one preceding it, resulting in Bitcoin (BTC) forming a second higher low and making Bitcoin (BTC) bulls more confident in their victory. It appears that Bitcoin (BTC) might test this downtrend resistance once more and we will see another pullback but it will be even weaker than before. This third sign of weakness will finally convince Bitcoin (BTC) bulls that the bearish resolve is completely obliterated. Thus, they will charge to knock down any finally bears on the battlefield and claim their victory as they officially win the war.